By: Michael Howe
Let’s be honest, the economy over the past several years has been a bit of a roller coaster ride. The ups and downs are sometimes challenging to navigate for any industry, let alone one like the trucking industry that is impacted by so many factors. One such factor is freight rates. Good rates, or at least stability in rates, can make all the difference for the industry, individual carriers, and even individual drivers. Where is the industry now and what will 2026 bring?
Taking a look at what factors impact freight rates in the trucking industry, predictions about the future are a bit more challenging than anticipated. Fuel prices have a direct impact on freight rates due to the significant expense they represent for trucking companies. One can often see fuel surcharges passed on to shippers if prices rise too much. Another factor are simple economics, that is, demand and economic growth. Conditions in each of these have the ability to impact stability. Then, governments can have an impact on freight rates through regulations and the true cost of compliance. One factor that is tough to control is weather and seasonal impacts, both of which can impact freight rates. Perhaps more currently topical are tariffs and trade policies which can impact costs, demand, and even regulation. Understanding and monitoring each of these can help carriers control costs and manage toward stability.
The US Executive Branch’s continued use of tariffs to manage economic policy may result in freight rate challenges in 2026, especially after it announced a new 25% tariff on heavy-duty truck imports in October of 2025. Additionally, the US continues to focus on immigration issues and this is now directly impacting the trucking industry with the US DOT’s interim rules on non-domiciled CDL issuance. How many drivers this ultimately impacts, and how it impacts freight, remains to be seen but there are about 194,000 current non-domiciled CDL drivers according to the DOT.
Even with these potential challenges, analysts are seeing opportunity for slight improvements in the trucking industry and freight rates. These improvements, of course, are dependent on the overall economy across the US, North American, and the Globe.
Freight Transportation Research (FTR) predicts flat truck freight volume through 2025 and 2026. Without a significant increase in demand, FTR is predicting moderate freight rate increases.
American Trucking Association (ATA) is optimistic about increasing freight volumes over the next few years, tracking economic growth. ATA is a bit concerned about challenges related to driver shortage and a need for infrastructure improvements but still predicts growth in demand.
With so many factors potentially impacting freight rates and the stability of the industry, the future is truly challenging to predict. It does appear, however, most analysis believe the industry is in for slow, but steady, growth. Every election cycle brings new uncertainty, every new administration brings new uncertainty, but even the weather can bring uncertainty to the economics of the trucking industry. The key is to monitor all of the above, invest wisely, and prepare accordingly for the ups and downs the industry is bound to face next year and beyond.
