The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, fell 1.0 percent in November from October, falling after a one-month rise, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS). The November 2015 index level (122.3) was 29.1 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession.
The level of freight shipments in November measured by the Freight TSI (122.3) was 1.1 percent below the all-time high level of 123.7 in November 2014. BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.
The October index was revised to 123.5 from 123.2 in last month’s release.
The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.
Analysis: The Freight TSI decrease was unusually broad in terms of mode – all freight modes decreased. The decrease appears to have been driven by weakness in the mining (including oil and gas well drilling and servicing) and manufacturing sectors of the economy. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production index declined in November by 0.6 percent, and the ISM Manufacturing Index was below 50, indicating declining manufacturing activity. Elevated inventory to sales ratios may have also played a role.
Trend: Since February 2015, the Freight TSI has not had two consecutive months of either growth or decline. November 2015 was no exception, as the index decreased by 1.0 percent, leaving it 0.3 percent below its September level. The November decrease was the largest since January 2014. After alternating increases and decreases since February, the November TSI was 1.1 percent below the November 2014 high point. The index remains high compared to earlier years however, and has increased by 29.1 percent since its low of 94.7 in April 2009. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.
Index highs and lows: Freight shipments in November 2015 (122.3) were 29.1 percent higher than the recent low in April 2009 during the recession (94.7). The November 2015 level was 1.1 percent below the historic peak reached in November 2014 (123.7).
Year to date: Freight shipments measured by the index were down 0.9 percent in November compared to the end of 2014.