The Brookfield Institute for Innovation + Entrepreneurship at Toronto’s Ryerson University said in its report that automation previously hasย been restricted to routine, manual tasks. However, breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and advanced robotics now means that automation is moving into “cognitive, non-routine tasks and occupations, such as driving and conducting job interviews.”
The institute put a 70 per cent or higher probability that “high risk”ย jobs will be affectedย by automation over the next 10 to 20 years, and it said workersย in the most susceptible jobs typically earnย less and have lower education levels than theย rest of the Canadian labour force.
The report saidย the top five occupationsย โย in terms of number of people employed in themย โ facing a high risk of automationย are:
- Retail salesperson.
- Administrative assistant.
- Food counter attendant.
- Cashier.
- Transport truck driver.
Jobs deemed to be at a low risk of being affected by automation โ having a less than 30 per cent chance โ are linked to high skill levels and higher earnings, such as management and jobs in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM).
The top five low risk occupation, by employment, are:
- Retail and wholesale trade managers.
- Registered nurses.
- Elementary and kindergarten teacher.
- Early childhood educators and assistant.
- Secondary school teachers.
The Brookfield Institute’s report said low-riskย occupations are projected to produce nearlyย 712,000 new jobs, absent automation,ย between 2014 and 2024, while high-risk occupation are expected to add 396,000 over that same time frame.
On a provincial basis,ย Ontario has the lowest proportion โ 41.1 per cent โย of jobs at high risk of automation, while P.E.I. hasย the highest with over 45 per cent of jobs at high risk of automation over the next 10 to 20 years.
The institute also said workers in the jobs deemed at high risk in the study are disproportionately between 15 and 24 years, while workers in lower risk jobs tend to be “prime-aged workers,”ย between 25 and 54.
“Canada’s younger and, to a lesser extent, older populations are more likely to be vulnerable to the effects of automation,” the study said.
“We hope these findings can help contribute to an important debate about how Canada should prepare for the effects of automation and computerization on our labour force,” Seanย Mullin, executive director of the Brookfield Instituteย said.
The institute suggested that more study is needed intoย high-risk occupations to determine their ability to withstand automation and technology-based restructuring.
“We don’t believe that all of these jobs will be lost,” saidย Mullin, in a release. “Many will be restructured, and new jobs will be created as the nature of occupations change due to the impact of technology and computerization.”
Source:ย Brookfield Institute for Innovation + Entrepreneurship.ย
