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Friday, April 23, 2021

Diesel Engines are King, but for how long?

In the report, “N.A. On-highway CV Engine Outlook” forecasts of engine demand in on-highway commercial vehicles by analyzing significant trends in engine displacement, engine type (diesel, gasoline, natural gas, and other), captive versus non-captive engines, and premium versus non-premium power for Class 8 vehicles.

The North American Class 8 vehicle market is almost entirely made up of diesel engines (98.5% in 2015), but that dominance is expected to recede slightly by 2021, making room for growth in alternative power options, according to a new report by Americas Commercial Transportation (ACT) Research and Rhein Associates.

“This new report details current and future OEM offerings, the engine-related regulations in the pipeline and the impact of these regulations on the market, as well as our forecast for the North American commercial vehicle engine industry through 2021,” said Tom Rhein, president of Rhein Associates. “For instance, the Class 8 production was split 75.5% tractor to 24.5% truck in 2015, but we expect the truck share to grow as explained in the report.”

According to ACT’s senior partner and general manager Ken Vieth: “We see captive engines gain in market share, as in-house models increase and displacements are reduced. While we don’t expect a complete reversal by 2021, the industry is certainly going through a transition. Diesel dominates, but the share will narrow, and non-captive engines are likely to decline, barring any unforeseen circumstances.”

“With the impending GHG Phase Two regulations and growth of vertical integration across the supply chain, and with the constant push for engine efficiencies and reduced emissions simultaneously, now seemed like the time to apply our models and expertise collaboratively to provide intel unlike any other available,” Vieth added.

ACT is the publisher of new and used commercial vehicle (CV) industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American market, as well as the U.S. tractor-trailer market and the China CV market. ACT’s CV services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as the banking and investment community.